Category: News

The harbinger effect:

The study of harbingers emerged from a 2015 analysis of purchasing patterns at a national convenience store chain. (In exchange for the data, the researchers agreed not to reveal the identity of the chain.) Drawing on six years’ worth of data from the chain’s loyalty card program, a team of marketing professors led by Eric Anderson of Northwestern University classified customers according to their affinity for buying new products that were later pulled from the shelves because of weak demand. Of the roughly 130,000 customers whose purchases were logged, a sizable fraction (about 25 percent) consistently took home products that bombed.

“It was really an accident,” says the economist Catherine Tucker of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, one of the study’s authors. “We looked in the data and saw there were some customers who were really good at picking out failures” — so good, in fact, that a newly introduced product was less likely to survive if it attracted these buyers. (And if they bought it repeatedly, its chances of survival were even worse.) Professor Tucker called these people harbingers of failure because, statistically speaking, their fondness for a product heralded its demise.

The harbinger effect has since been shown to apply not just to individuals but also to geographic locales.

Also to investment portfolios.

(Link via Instapundit.)

NASA photo reveals mysterious hole in Mars ‘that may contain alien life’:

Alien life may be lurking within a mysterious caver under the surface of Mars, scientists claim.

An eerie crater on the dusty slopes of Mars’ Pavonis Mons volcano was picked out by two space scientists as a prime spot for extraterrestrials.

* * * *

“Analysis and follow-up images revealed the opening to be about 35 meters across,” NASA scientists Robert Nemiroff and Jerry Bonnell wrote in the post.

“The interior shadow angle indicates that the underlying cavern is roughly 20 meters deep.”

Given the size of the ‘cavern,’ I expect that they’re expecting more microbes than Dejah Thoris.

Until they see the door.

The world’s first VR gym is opening in San Francisco. We tried it.

Lewis set me up with an account on the Black Box app, which tracks fitness stats like rep intensity and weight, then velcroed two hands-free controllers onto my forearms. The comfortable headset didn’t weigh down my neck or shoulders, but put some pressure on my cheeks and forehead. It connects to a cable from the ceiling, ostensibly to prevent exercisers from dropping and breaking the device — or stealing it.

With the headset on, I was transported to a virtual waiting room and then catapulted into the first of 10 virtual “battle arenas.” I started in the base-level arena, which looked like a warmer version of Planet Krypton.

The high-quality graphics made the environment appear as real as an animated game could hope to look, while the detail and vastness of my virtual surroundings helped distract from some of the discomfort of the headset — and the awareness of being alone in a room with a stranger, squatting and punching with no vision of my real-world surroundings.

The game dropped me onto a field with two pink crystals, placed on opposite ends, the goal being to destroy the opponent’s crystal before he destroys mine. Here’s where the exercise comes in. To fire off an attack or defense, I had to complete a series of traditional exercises. There are six to choose from — chest press, overhead press, row, lat pulldown, squat and deadlift — with each corresponding to a different weapon. A chest press, for example, shoots off a fire beam; a shoulder press emits a meteor strike. The more reps I completed, the more damage I inflicted on the enemy.

It sounds expensive and repetitive. I don’t expect this to be a viable gym model. I expect most gym models are predicated on selling memberships that go unused for a while before cancellation and on catering to a crowd who knows a good workout, and tarting the experience up with high-cost electronics and high-overhead processes will outstrip the money spent on the novelty of it, and the cost of a membership would be noticeable if you’re not using it even in San Francisco.

I don’t like the gym so much that I bought the company. And I would totally buy a Prop Cycle game for my home gym. So maybe VR gyms are the wave of the future, and I’m a Luddite.

From the article Corona beer brand is impacted by the coronavirus news:

We’d like to take a moment to repeat: The coronavirus has nothing to do with Corona the beer; the virus is named after the Latin word for crown thanks to an exterior structure that features little crown-like spikes, while the beer is named for the Sun’s corona.

The sun’s corona? Named for the Latin word for crown.

Completely different etimologies there.

(Link via Instapundit.)

Firearm violence not far from the old homestead in Casinoport: Woman shot, killed at community center by co-worker who was ‘angry’ about being sent home from work:

More information has been released into the deadly shooting at a St. Louis County community center.

The shooting happened at the Maryland Heights Community Center Monday around 8:10 p.m. One woman was killed, and the suspected gunman was injured after he fired his gun at an officer. That officer returned fire. The officer was not injured.

My beautiful wife sang with the community choir there, and I attended one or two meetings of a writer’s group there.

So, as with many local crime stories of this ilk, I checked to see if I know anyone involved. Apparently not, but sometimes it is the case.

In the new neighborhood, I’m running with a different crowd and am more likely to recognize people who appear in the local society pages or who buy ballparks.

Meghan and Harry reportedly barred from using ‘Sussex Royal’ label going forward:

According to the Daily Mail, the two had hoped to leverage “Sussex Royal” into not just a new website but a “global trademark for a range of items and activities, including clothing, stationery, books and teaching materials” and a new charitable organization with the name. The pair began using the term in early 2019 after their branch-off from Prince William and Kate Middleton’s household, Kensington Royal.

Kind of how you got Trump steaks, Trump University, Trump Homes, et cetera.

However, Meg and Har’s venture would be really classy and not mockable because they’re right-thinking folk.

Amid the actual economic repercussions from a disease outbreak (Cathay Pacific flags “significant” drop in H1 profit, capacity cuts due to coronavirus, Singapore downgrades 2020 economic forecast amid coronavirus outbreak, Japan manufacturers remain pessimistic as coronavirus fears grow, etc.), academics remind us that climate change might someday have a cataclysmic economic impact:

A shocking new study says extreme weather events caused by climate change could result in an economic recession “the likes of which we’ve never seen before.”

The research, published in Nature Energy, notes that financial markets are not taking into account the risks that catastrophic events such as floods, droughts and other extreme weather events will have on the economy.

“If the market doesn’t do a better job of accounting for climate, we could have a recession — the likes of which we’ve never seen before,” the study’s author, University of California, Davis accounting professor Paul Griffin, said in a statement.

Griffin added the amount of “unpriced risk” in the energy market is significant, noting this is what caused the Great Recession. “Right now, energy companies shoulder much of that risk. The market needs to better assess risk, and factor a risk of extreme weather into securities prices,” he explained.

You know the only way to avoid the economic impacts of climate change? Economic impacts–taxes and new economic incentives/subsidies/fees–that benefit climate change activists and governments.

Let’s just see how well humanity does after the current actual threat before we move onto ones that we make up.

(Coronovirus links via Instapundit.)

In a column Chiefs’ Super Bowl legend needed to overcome one last obstacle, a New York Post sports writer indicates his ignorance of Kansas City:

It ended 31-20. It ended with red-and-yellow confetti littering the field, and with Kansas Citians pouring into the places that make their town so unique, the Fire and Light District, Westport, the Country Club Plaza.

Except it’s the Power and Light District.

I am not a big fan of Kansas City (the city), and I knew that.

And I know you’re asking, am I a Chiefs fan?

You bet I am.

Victoria’s Secret boss Leslie Wexner may step down, sell company

I bought stock in Intimate Brands, Incoporated, around the turn of the century based on Peter Lynch‘s advice to invest in what you know or like. When Limited Brands (later L Brands) bought out its former child brand, I bought into L Brands.

It’s done well for me. I don’t know if it’s been a ten-bagger, but it’s done all right.

But if L Brands is selling it, I am likely to sell my L Brands and pick up some stock in whomever buys Victoria’s Secret. My experiences in buying general mall retailers (Wet Seal, Chico’s/Charming Shops, JC Penney) have had mixed results at best.

Report: ‘Kevin and Liz’ Springfield morning show canceled as iHeartMedia slashes staff nationwide:

Liz Delany, longtime host of a popular morning drive time show on KGBX along with co-host Kevin Howard, confirmed Wednesday morning that “The Kevin and Liz Show” was canceled.

“Before you hear it elsewhere, the Kevin and Liz show was canceled as of today,” read a post on Delany’s Facebook account. “I love this community and I’ve been proud to serve it during these last 21 years. Thank you all for supporting us for so long. I’m going to miss talking to you every day. God bless you, Liz.”

Broadcast radio is definitely facing serious competition with Spotify and other media, not to mention the occasional audio book or course in my vehicles. No doubt.

But I’m not sure firing the local personalities that radio audiences know is the right strategy.

The show’s cancellation came on the heels of major cuts nationwide by KGBX’s parent company, iHeartMedia, which announced a corporate restructuring earlier this week. The goal, officials said in a news release, was “to take advantage of the significant investments (iHeartMedia) has made in technology and artificial intelligence.”

So, instead, we’re going to get broadcast radio that sounds more like Spotify, but with smaller playlists selected for you by artificial intelligence that you don’t control.

I suppose it’s the sort of thinking that makes short-term sense. Cash outlays are down. But the decline in listenership will hasten.

Kansas man requests ‘trial by combat’ with swords to settle custody battle with ex-wife:

A Kansas man has asked an Iowa judge to let him engage in a sword fight with his ex-wife and her attorney so that he can “rend their souls” from their bodies.

. . . .

He also asked the judge for 12 weeks’ time so he could secure Japanese samurai swords.

As there’s no armor, I would recommend the rapier.

As I am sure I have mentioned over and over again, when my martial arts class was studying swords and sparring, I was a relative master because I fought rapier-style and poked my opponents far faster than they could swing a psuedo-katana at me.

(Link via Instapundit.)

So I’m reading an article (Daughter of Ohio Democrat charged with shouting slurs, resisting cops at Trump rally), and I get to this picture:

and I think, “Helen Thomas has risen from her grave to protest Trump.”

Why not? She’s prolly already risen from her grave to vote for Hillary in 2016.

That’s dedication, gentle reader.

‘Alice’ Child Star Philip McKeon Dies at 55

It’s not something from Ancestry.com or some other genealogy site, and I haven’t tried to confirm it, but when we were growing up, someone told us that we were distant cousins by marriage to Philip and Nancy McKeon. Which would have meant much more to a ten-year-old in 1982 than today.

In researching this post, I learned that my alleged cousin Nancy has kept busy acting and whatnot throughout our lifetimes, but I haven’t seen her in anything since the 1980s.

Two people escape from a house fire near Battlefield, Mo.

I’m not sure why they would categorize this as near Battlefield, Mo. Here is the 2300 block of South Nolting Avenue, the scene of the fire:

Notice the town of Battlefield, Missouri, in the southwest corner.

Although this particular block is in unincorporated Greene County, it is surrounded on three sides by Springfield, Missouri, which has an isthmus that leads to the City Utilities power plant and some surrounding land. Nolting is far nearer to Springfield (a couple of blocks) than a town a couple miles away:

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Forensically speaking, I would guess that someone told the headline writer that the fire was near Battlefield, and the headline writer surmised that meant the town and filled in the state name. However, in Springfield speak, Battlefield more often means Battlefield Road which is just south of the fire location.

A small case of the Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect? Hardly–I don’t believe much of anything I read in the news anyway. But an example of a small mistake that one can extrapolate means other small or large mistakes in basic reporting, much less anything technical or scientific.

Gardner alleges racist conspiracy in federal civil rights lawsuit against St. Louis, police union

The first black woman elected as circuit attorney in the city of St. Louis is taking long-standing racial tensions, specifically between her office and the police department, to federal court.

On Monday, Circuit Attorney Kimberly M. Gardner filed a federal civil rights lawsuit alleging a racist conspiracy to stop her from doing her job. Gardner is suing the city of St. Louis; the St. Louis Police Officers Association and its longtime business manager Jeff Roorda; a former police officer named Charles Lane who sued Gardner’s office; and Gerard Carmody and his children, who are the private attorneys appointed as special prosecutors to investigate her office’s handling of the investigation of former Gov. Eric Greitens.

Is this a conspiracy? George Soros’ quiet overhaul of the U.S. justice system:

While America’s political kingmakers inject their millions into high-profile presidential and congressional contests, Democratic mega-donor George Soros has directed his wealth into an under-the-radar 2016 campaign to advance one of the progressive movement’s core goals — reshaping the American justice system.

The billionaire financier has channeled more than $3 million into seven local district-attorney campaigns in six states over the past year — a sum that exceeds the total spent on the 2016 presidential campaign by all but a handful of rival super-donors.

Gardner would probably disagree, as she received some of that money from a foreign national: St. Louis circuit attorney candidate defends accepting super PAC campaign money from liberal billionaire.

Well, perhaps it’s a plan, but it’s probably not shadowy enough to be a true conspiracy, and it’s certainly not racist in the headline sense.

But I really wish our system of government hadn’t turned into a reality television show designed to entertain its own participants.