Surprisingly, Government Numbers Don’t Bear Up

Home efficiency upgrades fall short, don’t pay: Study:

Home efficiency measures such as installing new windows or replacing insulation deliver such a small fraction of their promised energy savings that they may not save any money over the long run, according to the surprising conclusion of a University of Chicago study.

The study, which used data from a random sample of 30,000 low-income Michigan households that were eligible for an Energy Department home weatherization program, found that the projected energy savings were 2.5 times greater than actual savings. As a result, energy bills didn’t decline nearly enough to eventually pay for the initial cost of the upgrades.

“The problem is that the real world is screwy,” said Michael Greenstone, an energy economist and head of the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago. “The models project much larger savings than are realized by homeowners.”

Strangely enough, projections and modeling designed to influence or dictate behavior don’t bear up under actual scrutiny and real world experience. Just another place where science and government statistics diverge. Well, no, I guess it’s the same place, the one called “everywhere.”

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