The New York Times uncorked this fact, which I’ve seen repeated elsewhere:
No American president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt has won a second term in office when the unemployment rate on Election Day topped 7.2 percent.
Well, okay. But how many presidents have we since?
13. One of whom has yet to run for re-election.
So the 12 who have include:
- Harry Truman
- Dwight Eisenhower
- John F. Kennedy
- Lyndon Johnson
- Richard M. Nixon
- Gerald Ford
- Jimmy Carter
- Ronald Reagan
- George H.W. Bush
- Bill Clinton
- George W. Bush
Of those, one died in office, so he could not run for re-election (John F. Kennedy for those of you who went to public school and are not a baby boomer).
Here are the election results and the unemployment rate in November of the re-election year:
| Year as Incumbent | Unemployment | ||
| Harry Truman | 1948 | 3.8 | |
| Dwight Eisenhower | 1956 | 4.3 | |
| Lyndon Johnson | 1964 | 4.8 | |
| 1968 | 3.4 | Withdrew | |
| Richard M. Nixon | 1972 | 5.3 | |
| Gerald Ford | 1976 | 7.8 | |
| Jimmy Carter | 1980 | 7.5 | |
| Ronald Reagan | 1984 | 7.2 | |
| George H.W. Bush | 1992 | 7.4 | |
| Bill Clinton | 1996 | 5.4 | |
| George W. Bush | 2004 | 5.4 |
I’ve added LBJ in 1968 since he was sort of eligible to run again but he withdrew before the primaries, so maybe he would count as not winning a second full term in office (although he did win a second term, his first full term, in 1964).
So, who did not win reelection? Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush. That’s three, and it is assured that the unemployment was over 7.2% on election day for those fellows, although in Bush’s case it was coming down. Of course, this statistic does not account for the 1992 candidacy of Ross Perot, who ran on a ticket of more fiscal conservatism than “Read My Lips” Bush.
Why the cutoff at “topped 7.2 percent”? Because in 1984, Ronald Reagan won reelection with that very figure.
By focusing strictly on the unemployment, the New York Times and its repeaters do disservice to other factors, including the mood in the country.
So this factoid is more of a “Huh.” kind of thing rather than something we should accept as a scientific truth.
